Tuesday, August 18, 2020
A forecaster has predicted that Trump has only a 12 percent chance of winning the election and a three percent chance of getting a majority of voters. It is too soon for Democrats to gloat and rest on their oars. Rather, they should be spurred to pull harder and maintain the distance between Biden and Trump. As one commentator put it last night, Biden has the lead of an incumbent and not one of a challenger. But leads can disappear before election day, even if one wins a majority of voters. This is what happened to Hillary Clinton in 2016. Democrats are still smarting over that loss because they were convinced they had the election in the bag. Trump could win another four years again if he takes battleground states. Right now, it seems inconceivable that he could do it, but candidates have been in the same position before and come out on top. Think Harry Truman. In this strange COVID-19 season, anything could happen and maybe will.