Wednesday, January 18, 2012
No one is good at predicting the future and stories like this make for amusement later. Extrapolating from the present to a distant time fails to take into account human creativity and events -- adverse and opportunistic. It is hard to say where we will be by the end of 2012, much less 100 years from now. Few could have predicted the breakthroughs scientifically and medically of the last few years. And, there are too many variables in getting technologies to markets, not the least of which is consumer acceptance of them. That is why communicators should avoid scenarios of what might be, a temptation that occurs frequently when talking about scientific advances.