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Monday, January 10, 2022

Observation Bias 

A Chinese moon rover spied a "cube-shaped" object on the back side of the satellite and speculation started as to what it might be.  A hut? An alien symbol? A sign of life elsewhere in the universe?  Now that the rover is closer to the object, it turns out to be a rock, and it is not cube-shaped.  It has been resting on the edge of a crater for millions or billions of years.  A lesson from this episode of space exploration is that people see what they want to view.  Those looking for signs of life will interpret imagery that way until proven wrong, but they won't give up their observation bias.  The rational approach is to hold conclusions in abeyance until more is known.  But, that is hard for those who jump to explanations.  It is a failure that infects all humans from conspiracy theorists to scientists.  It is difficult to live with an unknown.  Humans demand explanations and will invent them as needed. The message that should be given is "we don't know, but we will find out."  There is no failure in pleading ignorance.   


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