Wednesday, March 09, 2022
Guesswork
Armchair military strategists are second-guessing Putin's success and aims in Ukraine. The fact is that few know what his generals planned and how long they estimated it would take to subdue the country. That is a military secret. If perception rules, then Putin is in trouble with his columns of tanks, trucks and troop carriers stalled on the road. But, the fog of war doesn't tell the facts most of the time and we're left staring into an abyss without clarity. The conclusion that Putin will double-down rather than back off seems realistic. He is not a man used to losing or failing to get his way. That much we know. How Ukrainians fight the battle for their existence is unknown, although they seem to be doing well in stalling the enemy as of now. But that might be propaganda. All the West can do is to arm the Ukrainian fighters, sanction Russia and wait.
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