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Thursday, July 28, 2022

Just Don't Know 

How do you communicate future trends when you don't know what the future holds?  You bob and weave like this. The Federal Reserve is in the glare of a spotlight and being watched by millions.  All want to know if the US is going into a recession.  The Fed Chair, Jerome Powell, doesn't know, so his words give fuel to all sides along with a cautionary tone that can be read in two ways as well.  The result?  We don't know anymore than anyone else.  That is proper. To declare no recession or yes, a recession is imminent would provide a specific data point against which markets would react.  Powell doesn't want that.  He is insisting on a gray zone, which is where the Fed is.  It is politically neutral and truthful -- a muddled message but needed at this time.    


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