Online Public Relations Thoughts

This baseball card just sold for $12.6 million.  One wonders why. It is a piece of cardboard covered in ink on one side, and it was originally sold in a package of bubble gum.  Apparently the buyer values rarity and is willing to pay for it.  It will be interesting when the buyer sells the card in the future if he will get anything near what he paid.  This event is a text book example of value and perception.  If one is willing to pay large sums for an item, it is because he perceives it as worth the cost.  It makes no difference what others might think.  Even if the card is rare and perhaps, one of a kind, the perception of value is hard to understand.  But there is no telling what people think things are worth.  

Now that President Biden has gotten some of his agenda through Congress, he is swinging back at "MAGA" Republicans and calling them out.  Republicans, for their part, are answering blow for blow.  It's getting ugly fast.  Look for a highly partisan Fall until the November elections.  Message crafting and communications are at the fore of the campaign battle along with testing and polling to see how the charges and counter-charges are landing.  Democrats are trying to narrow the enthusiasm gap that normally costs the ruling party seats in a Midterm election.  Republicans are aiming to take over both chambers and rendering Biden ineffective for the remainder of his time in office.  It is a costly battle for both sides, and at this point, it is unclear who will win.  

Peloton, the exercise bike company, is struggling now that it is no longer a fad.  Its peak was during the pandemic and now it is trying to turn around with little success.  The company is a victim of consumers' changing whims.  There was little Peloton could have done to prevent its decline and fall.  The question now is whether it can restructure itself to survive as a smaller company in a mature market.  Peloton is not the first nor will it be the last victim of fads.  The only safety a CEO can take is to react with caution once the market takes off and to prepare for its disappearance.  This is hard to do when one is straining the system to keep up with demand.  Long-term strategy takes a back seat to short-term fulfillment. Positive press builds a scenario that the music will never stop.  But then, it does and media turn negative, reflecting a change in consumers' tastes.  Maybe Peloton will survive.  Maybe not.  But, there are lessons in its struggles for every marketer and communicator.  

How do you get consumers who are used to a free service to pay for it?  This is the challenge facing Zoom, the online video calling software.   It is an age-old problem for marketers.  Can you get the public hooked enough that once free is taken away, they will transition to a paid service?  In Zoom's case, the phenomenal growth it saw during the pandemic is no longer there.  Consumers are no longer house-bound.  Hence the need to join remote business meetings and to talk to loved ones at length has gone away.  Zoom has entered a period of slow growth and there isn't much the company can do about it.  

The Justice Department wants to keep the affidavit justifying the search of Trump's estate secret.  The media want to know why FBI agents searched Mar-a-Lago.  The judge is inclined to go along with the media to a point.  This is an interesting case of balancing public interest and a criminal investigation.  It would not have occurred but for the notoriety of the central figure -- Trump.  Trump is using his bluster to charge judicial overreach.  The Justice Department has been mostly tight-lipped.  The media in an effort to communicate to the public are fighting over scraps of information.  It's an unhealthy mix.  The judge's decision might go part way to answering the media's questions or it could only heighten demand for more facts.  Whatever he decides will probably satisfy no one.  

Aramco, the Saudi Arabian oil and gas producer, saw record profits in the second quarter.  They jumped 90 percent while the price of gasoline in the US averaged above $5.00 a gallon. The Saudis made no apology for their success.  They are celebrating.  Meanwhile, drivers in the US and around the world are stewing in resentment and claiming price gouging.  On the surface, it appears that way, but what it doesn't take into account is the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the increase in the price of a barrel of oil as a result of that.  The Saudis are under no compulsion to keep prices low.  They follow the market like every other producer and their low cost of production massively benefits their bottom line.  Could they have produced more to bring prices down?  Yes, but why should they?  Aramco suffered when the price of oil collapsed during the pandemic.  It's the way the market works.  

The Biden administration is taking credit for gasoline dropping to $3.99 a gallon on average nationwide.  There is no way of knowing whether it will bob back up to $4.00 or more at this point.  Once again, in the White House's anxiety to get credit and bolster opinion polls, the cheering could be premature.  One wonders why.  Biden has been wrong on COVID and wrong on inflation and both those mistakes cost him politically.  Yet, he continues to claim victory when there is no way of knowing whether it will be lasting.  If prices were to drop to $3.50 a gallon on average nationwide, Biden might have something to crow about, but even then, some key refineries are in hurricane zones and vulnerable.  This administration doesn't understand the need for caution.  

Democrats are avowing ignorance.  Republicans are in an uproar.  Trumpists are uttering dark thoughts.  All this because the FBI raided Trump's Florida estate.   What exactly the agency was looking for is still unknown publicly.  No one is talking at the Justice Department or the FBI.  Not yet, anyway.  This has left the door open for conspiracy theories, outrage and public support of the ex-President.  For the White House's sake, Justice and the FBI had better be right about their search because it looks now like a deliberate political attempt to smear Trump and prevent him from running for president again.  The public wants to know the reasons for the search but no one is talking, including Trump's attorneys.  Sometimes silence is inimical to trust.  This is one of those occasions.  It is time for transparency, not a moment too soon.  

President Biden's ambitious legislative package is on the cusp of passage after a political breakthrough.  Some are predicting it will buoy his sagging popularity and put him visibly in charge again.  But, the question should be, "Is it too late?"  The American public seems to have made its decision that Biden is ineffectual and citizens are more worried about inflation than legislation.  A question for the White House is what communications are needed to turn the polls around?  Democrats need to sell themselves as if they were a new party celebrating a win for the first time.  There is no excitement nor chatter, no spirit of "can do," no urge to get to the ballot box.  It is a massive PR problem for the administration and one that can't be fixed overnight.  Unfortunately, it has little time to turn things around.  November is looming. 

Softbank's Vision Fund has just posted a $21.6 billion quarterly loss.  There isn't much its founder can say.  The bleeding-edge technology fund has been hammered by growing interest rates and inflation.  The fund is going into "defensive" mode and laying off employees, but it might have to do much more than that.  Communications will be important, especially to employees looking toward the door.  The fund needs its best and brightest minds to turn the situation around.  What will be damaging is if the founder goes silent and lets rumor run rampant.  Further deterioration is entirely possible before the bleeding can be stopped, and it can spook the investment market.  Softbank won't be the only fund to declare a huge loss but misery won't love company.  

Walmart' s decision to cut 200 corporate jobs in light of inflation and falling profits is a sign of the times.  It is a message the White House would prefer not to receive, but it reflects difficulties consumers and retailers face.  It also makes recession real and not an emerging threat that President Biden can deny.  The administration is dealing with two views of the economy -- one tenuous but positive and one negative.  It is up to the Federal Reserve to engineer a soft landing and the window for that is closing rapidly.  The Federal Reserve is being more honest than the White House.  It has acknowledged the difficulty of what it is trying to do.  Republicans are trumpeting bad news and blaming it squarely on President Biden, which is unfair, but par for the course.  It is a challenging time for White House communicators.