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Monday, January 02, 2023

Nobody Knows Anything 

 It's symptomatic of a field in which ignorance rules for predictions to be wildly divergent.  Consider bitcoin where forecasts for 2023 spread between a 1400% rally and a 70% plunge.  Nobody knows anything about the fate of the cryptocurrency.  Communications in an environment of uncertainty are difficult.  It is probably best not to say anything but to watch closely what a market is doing to see if there are any enduring trends.  This leaves investors without comfort but it also prevents confusion and noise.  No one really knows why any market rises or falls on any given day.  Traders reach a consensus but they don't know either.  They are guessing.  There is no shame in stating publicly that one doesn't know.  It is far better to be honest than glib.  


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