Online Public Relations Thoughts

Elizabeth Holmes, founder of the fraudulent Theranos blood-testing company, is now in prison for 11 years.  It has been a long fall for her and a lesson to Silicon Valley entrepreneurs to avoid faking it until you make it.  It is a reminder to communicators everywhere to stick to facts and to avoid puffery, especially in public companies.  Theranos was a company built on a lie that its technology worked.  It didn't and never did.  When investigative reporters discovered the fraud, it was swiftly over for the company and the beginning of extensive legal troubles for Holmes.  Her fall from grace was inevitable.  Those who once supported her have turned their backs.  She will be bunking with three other inmates in a minimum-security federal prison in Texas.  Will she ever be able to live it down?    

Now that Turkish leader Erdogan has won yet another term, the challenge will be the messages he feeds to his citizens in light of a falling lira and rampant inflation.  He can distract them for a time with claims of fighting terrorism but sooner or later, Turks will want prices to stabilize so they can feed their families.  What will he say then?  He has flouted economic theory by pumping money into the country in an effort to slow inflation.  It hasn't worked yet and most likely never will.  Erdogan is a dictator with a firm grasp on power even though he was up for election.  He has five more years to make his theories work.  Bets are even that he solidifies his hold on his office whether or not he is voted in again.  

The Speaker of the House and the President now have scant time to sell the debt ceiling details to both sides of Congress.  It is already clear that radical conservatives and left-wing progressives don't like it.  It will be up to centrists on both sides to carry the day.  No one wants the debt default so the messages of urgency and no one got all they wanted are the arguments from both the White House and the Speaker.  There is more than a hint of a stampede in the making.    

What do you do when a training program is abusive by its nature?   This is the dilemma of the Navy's SEAL training designed to weed out 50% to 60% of candidates in its normal course.  Sailors are put through hell in a week where they sleep but four hours and exercise constantly.  It's the Navy's message to candidates that they are élite if they survive. Sadly, some of them don't, as this report indicates. The question for the trainers is how to push men beyond the extremes of pain without killing them?  The program is meant to be harmful but not deadly.  It's a conundrum the Navy will need to resolve -- and soon.

Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-Florida)  launched his presidential campaign yesterday on Twitter only to have it glitch for 30 minutes. This happened with less than 500,000 users signed on to the service.  Any way one might want to spin the cockup, it still stands as an embarrassment to Elon Musk who wants to build a "digital town square."  Musk's technicians said the servers couldn't handle the load, but if that's the case, Twitter has a way to go before it can be called a meeting place for the masses.  Silicon Valley is used to mistakes of this kind and can slough it off while moving on to the next thing.  It is unclear whether users feel the same way.  Musk might get a bye this time but he might not get a second chance to do it right.  His reputation is already in tatters since he purchased Twitter and promptly mucked it up.  

Democrats and Republicans are indicating they are finding a path to raising the debt ceiling before the country goes broke.  It's past time to be playing with fire.  Both sides are to blame for the infarction that has the country on edge.  They have bloviated, talking to their bases but not with each other.  Now they have to confront each other across a table and find something that works -- and quickly.  The clock is ticking to June 1, the day that time runs out, according to the Treasury Secretary.  Communication is key.  They have to abandon posturing, which both sides have too much of.  Radicals on both sides of the spectrum need to tone down their statements and act.  

This is an example of solving one environmental problem and creating others at the same time. Vast solar power generating farms are covering the Mojave desert in California but destroying the fragile ecosystem.  There is no good place to put these farms and the desert seems to be the least objectionable site for them.  Not so, say desert residents and ecologists. The result is competing environmental messages with a weight of facts on both sides.  There is no answer that will solve the problem.  The weight of political influence and population is driving the construction of these farms, so there is little to stop them.  The scattered desert residents will have to give way, but maybe some day their voices will be heard.  By then, it might be too late.  

Ford Motor is unleashing a major communications thrust today to convince Wall Street skeptics about its plans for producing 2,000,000 EVs a year by 2026, up from 600,000 this year. The event is called Capital Markets Day.  Ford needs to marshal the facts of its changeover from gasoline engines to electric power. and they need to be convincing.  Otherwise, negative conclusions will knock the company's stock lower and make capital-raising more difficult.  Expect a well rehearsed show and plenty of AV and other effects to help make the point.  Expect as well a parade of Ford executives, each discussing his area of management responsibility and how it fits into the goal.  There will be questions, some fawning and some hostile, and attention paid to how Ford's CEO answers them.  The mark of success will be positive analyst opinions.  Failure will be devastating critiques of the company's plans.  It should be interesting. 

In study after study, scientists have shown the effects of climate change and global warming but humans haven't changed their behavior much.  This research reveals that the world's largest lakes are drying up because of -- yes --  climate change and overuse.  Humans have been mining water -- extracting it without concern for its replacement.  The effects are already evident and there is no good way to reverse them without reduction in use and several good years of rain and snow.  What messages will it take to convince people to change their ways?  Already communities are without water and have to ship it in with tanker trucks. This is a giant task for communicators worldwide and a challenge that will last for decades.  

The FBI has demonstrated what can happen when one acts with confirmation bias.  Evidence that fits an understanding is kept.  Evidence that doesn't is ignored.  This is the insight revealed in the Durham report, a 306-page examination of the charge that the Trump campaign had colluded with Russians to win the 2016 election. It portrays the FBI as a group of bunglers who should have known better, and it is a black mark on the agency's reputation.  Certainly the agency's professionals knew that they had to be objective in their approach to the case, but they weren't.  They made assumptions and proceeded to make a mess.  It is a lesson worth studying.  How often do we work with confirmation bias, sorting facts according to our prior understanding?  How often do we want something to be so we will it into existence in the face of contrary evidence?  

Republicans and Democrats in Washington DC are already playing the blame game, pointing fingers at each other for a failure so-far to raise the debt limit.  What they ignore is that voters don't care who is at fault.  They want action and the longer the vote is stalled, they won't get it.  Finger-pointing is a way to obfuscate a truth that neither side is prepared to give in, which is what they must do. The net result is that Americans are saying a pox on all politicians, conservative and liberal.  It doesn't have to be this way, but, sadly, it is. The partisan divide is a reflection of two nations each with a fixed set of views.  Messages to Washington are opposed and Congressmen are caught in the middle. Still, if there is will, there is a way to get along.  Right now, there is no will.  

Scabby the Rat is a fading symbol of union protests.  It once had a powerful message because everyone knew what it stood for, but now, not so much.  People confuse the Rat with a need for an exterminator.  Unions still use Scabby but they recognize its day is passing, or past.  At some point, unions will retire it and go on to other images of protests.  The Rat drew attention for decades, but its time has come.  This is a lesson for communicators.  Symbols wear out and need changing or refreshing.  Few endure for generations.  

 Americans are apparently not paying attention to the looming debt crisis.  There is no deluge of phone calls, emails and letters to Congress.  The public has chosen to sit this one out.  Wall Street is calm. Corporate America is side-stepping the issue.  The general feeling is that the problem will be resolved before the US can no longer pay its bills.  Should the White House worry about this lack of urgency?  Yes.  It needs the public to put pressure on Congress to get a bill Biden will accept.  Or, Biden will need to negotiate with the House rather than accept only a clean bill raising the limit.  The two sides are playing with fire and threatening to set off a conflagration.  It's ugly and shouldn't have occurred in the first place.  

Disney's stock sank quickly when it reported that it had lost four million subscribers to its streaming channel, Disney+. The Street had expected a gain of a million and showed no mercy to the house of the mouse.  The loss was on top of a weakening of its TV channels, although they were profitable.  Disney's reputation has taken a hit, and it will take time for investor's to trust it again.  The company's near-term solution to raise prices was pronounced unsustainable by financial analysts.  And, its layoff of 7,000 employees is a further indication that its platinum brand is losing its shine.  All the publicity in the world won't help it if the public continues to fall away.  The company needs winning content to keep its marketing machine going.  It has the tools to make it.  It needs the creativity to use them well.  

Fact checkers of former president Trump's CNN town hall have shown he is still lying and apparently getting away with it.  The audience of Trump supporters lapped it up.  Sooner or later in a Free Speech society the truth will catch up, but that might not stop him from claiming the Republican nomination for President.  Trump's modus operandi is to generate rage against purported enemies who are out to get him.  His stance is one of injured innocence that won't take criticism anymore.  The sad part is that millions of voters believe him.

It was nearly past time to charge Rep. George Santos (R-NY) with fraud for his outrageous lies about his resume and fund raising.  His colleagues in Congress are saying good riddance, and they would prefer not to seem him in the chamber again.  The Santos affair raised questions about the thoroughness of vetting before entering a race.  It wasn't done nearly enough in his case and it took The New York Times after his election to expose the fraud.  But, revealed it was.  In the internet age, it's difficult to keep secrets. This should be a lesson to others who concoct campaign messages from nothing.  Don't do it.  It will catch up with you sooner or later.  

This is irony.  Putin claims the West is out to get Russia when it is Russia out to conquer Ukraine.  He has framed the invasion as a noble attempt to fight Nazism when there are no Nazis anywhere to be found.  The only thing missing is sarcasm.  Putin is striving to get the Russian public to believe his lies and there is strong indication they do.  To keep falsehoods current, Putin needs unrelenting propaganda and he is getting it with his ironclad control of the media.  One wonders how long this situation can last, and the answer is for a long time.  Putin has a grip over the levers of power and he is cunning.  He won't go away easily or at all except by dying in office and there is no indication he is ill.  He seems resolved to conduct a grinding war -- as long as it takes -- and to wear down opposition bit by bit.  He is a dangerous man for whom facts are malleable and truth is what he says it is.  

Warren Buffett won't invest in any EV manufacturers and stays away from the auto industry entirely. He says no one owns the market and there is no good way to predict which auto company will be dominant in five to 10 years.  How is that as commentary on car companies?  There are no clear winners in his view -- not Tesla, not Ford, no GM, not Volkswagen.  All of these companies have immense marketing and communications departments, but in Buffett's view, they are at parity over the long haul.  Their advertising and PR are shouting at consumers who aren't listening or don't see a clear differentiation in their vehicles.  An interesting observation, no?

The CEO of the Wagner Group, the Russian mercenary company fighting on behalf of the Kremlin, is enraged.  He accuses the generals in Moscow of ignoring his men and shorting them of ammunition. Such a public condemnation is dangerous. Putin jails protesters quickly and sends them to prison.  But, Yevgeny Prigozhin has one thing going for him.  He is a close friend of Putin and more likely to be listened to.  Such angry outbursts reveal turmoil in the ranks and are not good for morale among soldiers and civilians.  It destroys the impact of propaganda and breaks the image of solidarity. As a communicator, Putin has a problem that can only be solved by repression and/or action.  

 The White House is hoisting a hurricane flag over raising the debt ceiling.  Its economists are predicting disaster if the country runs out of money.  Eight million jobs at stake.  Plunging stock market. Other ills.  The Republicans response to that is negotiate or take our bill.  The White House has refused to this point but publicly warns of disaster by June 1. It's a deadly dance of  warring press releases.  The fact is nobody will win if the country defaults and the public will blame both parties for the outcome.  Something needs to be done about deficit spending but this is not the way to do it.  Someone will have to blink first.  

Communications are facilitated when listeners share a common culture and understanding.  That's why this report is disturbing.  Too many students are lacking basic knowledge of American government and history.  They are maturing in an environment that needs explanation and they aren't getting it.  Worse, history textbooks in some states ignore historical facts that should be taught such as endemic racism and genocide of native peoples.  No one wins when citizens are ignorant in a democracy.  They are subject to misinformation and lies that go unchecked.  Myths become beliefs. Narrowmindedness is a result.  The future of the country is being determined in classrooms of today.  There needs to be a fix.  

 Hollywood writers have gone out on strike.  They are bellowing to the  Alliance of Motion Picture and Television Producers that they have had enough of poor pay and "gig" work, and they want to earn a living wage.  It looks now that they might be out for awhile and Hollywood productions will feel the effects of the walkout right way.  More power to them even if it is the wrong time.  Production companies are cutting back and laying off thousands because their earnings have plummeted.  It seems in a streaming economy that there is no good time for going out.  Writers are the seed from which productions grow. Hollywood can't do without them.  It will be interesting to watch which side will capitulate.   

First Republic Bank was too late in finding a remedy for the bank run that savaged it and now is part of JPMorgan Chase & Co.  Its tight-lipped presentation to financial analysts didn't help its decline.  Its executives failed to instill confidence in customers and Wall Street so its stock continued to dive as deposits flowed out.  "JPMorgan said it will assume all of First Republic’s $92 billion in deposits—insured and uninsured. It is also buying most of the bank’s assets, including about $173 billion in loans and $30 billion in securities."  JPMorgan was the first bank to step up and help First Republic when its customers began to pull their insured and uninsured deposits.  So, the failure has burnished JPMorgan's reputation as much as it has tarnished what little was left of First Republic's.  That's the way capitalism works.